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Moving Averages

 

 

 

 

By Cory Janssen, Chad Langager and Casey Murphy

 

 

 

Most chart patterns show a lot of variation in price movement. This can make it difficult for traders to get an idea of a security's overall trend. One simple method traders use to combat this is to apply moving averages. A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. By plotting a security's average price, the price movement is smoothed out. Once the day-to-day fluctuations are removed, traders are better able to identify the true trend and increase the probability that it will work in their favor. (To learn more, read the Moving Averages tutorial.)

 

 

Types of Moving Averages

 

There are a number of different types of moving averages that vary in the way they are calculated, but how each average is interpreted remains the same. The calculations only differ in regards to the weighting that they place on the price data, shifting from equal weighting of each price point to more weight being placed on recent data. The three most common types of moving averages are simple, linear and exponential.

 

 

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

 

 

This is the most common method used to calculate the moving average of prices. It simply takes the sum of all of the past closing prices over the time period and divides the result by the number of prices used in the calculation. For example, in a 10-day moving average, the last 10 closing prices are added together and then divided by 10. As you can see in Figure 1, a trader is able to make the average less responsive to changing prices by increasing the number of periods used in the calculation. Increasing the number of time periods in the calculation is one of the best ways to gauge the strength of the long-term trend and the likelihood that it will reverse.

 

MovingAverage1.gif Figure 1

 

Many individuals argue that the usefulness of this type of average is limited because each point in the data series has the same impact on the result regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. The critics argue that the most recent data is more important and, therefore, it should also have a higher weighting. This type of criticism has been one of the main factors leading to the invention of other forms of moving averages.

 

 

Linear Weighted Average

 

This moving average indicator is the least common out of the three and is used to address the problem of the equal weighting. The linear weighted moving average is calculated by taking the sum of all the closing prices over a certain time period and multiplying them by the position of the data point and then dividing by the sum of the number of periods. For example, in a five-day linear weighted average, today's closing price is multiplied by five, yesterday's by four and so on until the first day in the period range is reached. These numbers are then added together and divided by the sum of the multipliers.

 

 

 

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

 

 

This moving average calculation uses a smoothing factor to place a higher weight on recent data points and is regarded as much more efficient than the linear weighted average. Having an understanding of the calculation is not generally required for most traders because most charting packages do the calculation for you. The most important thing to remember about the exponential moving average is that it is more responsive to new information relative to the simple moving average. This responsiveness is one of the key factors of why this is the moving average of choice among many technical traders. As you can see in Figure 2, a 15-period EMA rises and falls faster than a 15-period SMA. This slight difference doesn’t seem like much, but it is an important factor to be aware of since it can affect returns.

MovingAverage2.gif Figure 2

 

 

Major Uses of Moving Averages

 

 

Moving averages are used to identify current trends and trend reversals as well as to set up support and resistance levels.

 

Moving averages can be used to quickly identify whether a security is moving in an uptrend or a downtrend depending on the direction of the moving average. As you can see in Figure 3, when a moving average is heading upward and the price is above it, the security is in an uptrend. Conversely, a downward sloping moving average with the price below can be used to signal a downtrend.

Movingaverage4.gif Figure 3

 

 

Another method of determining momentum is to look at the order of a pair of moving averages. When a short-term average is above a longer-term average, the trend is up. On the other hand, a long-term average above a shorter-term average signals a downward movement in the trend.

 

Moving average trend reversals are formed in two main ways: when the price moves through a moving average and when it moves through moving average crossovers. The first common signal is when the price moves through an important moving average. For example, when the price of a security that was in an uptrend falls below a 50-period moving average, like in Figure 4, it is a sign that the uptrend may be reversing.

 

Movingaverage3.gif Figure 4

 

 

The other signal of a trend reversal is when one moving average crosses through another. For example, as you can see in Figure 5, if the 15-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average, it is a positive sign that the price will start to increase.

 

MovingAverage6.gif Figure 5

 

 

If the periods used in the calculation are relatively short, for example 15 and 35, this could signal a short-term trend reversal. On the other hand, when two averages with relatively long time frames cross over (50 and 200, for example), this is used to suggest a long-term shift in trend.

 

 

 

Another major way moving averages are used is to identify support and resistance levels. It is not uncommon to see a stock that has been falling stop its decline and reverse direction once it hits the support of a major moving average. A move through a major moving average is often used as a signal by technical traders that the trend is reversing. For example, if the price breaks through the 200-day moving average in a downward direction, it is a signal that the uptrend is reversing.

 

MovingAverage5.gif Figure 6

 

 

Moving averages are a powerful tool for analyzing the trend in a security. They provide useful support and resistance points and are very easy to use. The most common time frames that are used when creating moving averages are the 200-day, 100-day, 50-day, 20-day and 10-day. The 200-day average is thought to be a good measure of a trading year, a 100-day average of a half a year, a 50-day average of a quarter of a year, a 20-day average of a month and 10-day average of two weeks.

 

Moving averages help technical traders smooth out some of the noise that is found in day-to-day price movements, giving traders a clearer view of the price trend. So far we have been focused on price movement, through charts and averages. In the next section, we'll look at some other techniques used to confirm price movement and patterns.

 

 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis9.asp#axzz1roV6OpOS

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Candlestick Analysis

 

 

Introduction

 

 

 

One of the interesting and effective methods of analysis is candlestick analysis or in other words analysis of combinations of Japanese candlesticks. Let me remind You the main principles of candlestick charting.

 

 

Japanese Candles (Candlesticks) constructed by analogy with bar's chart. The most common candlesticks are based on daily charts. This is because the method to create and use it to analyze this very period. All the psychological background of this method of technical analysis is based on a ratio of prices at the opening and closing of the same trading day, as well as the closing price of the previous day and the opening of the next.

 

A candlestick differs from the bar in shape. In the interval between the opening and closing prices to draw a rectangle, called the body of a candlestick. Vertical sticks top and bottom of a body called the "shadows", which show the maximum and minimum prices at this time interval, respectively. The body of a candlestick is painted over in different ways depending on the relative position of the opening and closing prices. In world practice, adopted the following method - if the bar was closed at the highest level compared with the price discovery, then white, if the bar closed lower than the open, the body of a candle is painted over in black.

 

131_118.gif To change the type of the chart on the candlesticks you can use the button panel "Charts" (see fig. 2), toolbar Alt +2 or menu command of the menu "Charts -> Japanese candlesticks" .

 

 

131_119.gif

 

Figure 1. Candlestick chart created in MetaTrader 4

 

 

 

131_120.jpg

 

Figure 2. Toolbar "Charts"

 

 

The main principle of the analysis of combinations of Japanese candlesticks is to find the standard patterns (or continue to turn the trends), and interpreting them we may predict quite accurately further price behavior.

 

It must be remembered that the existence of a pattern points only to the fact that the old trend is likely over. This means that the market can move both in the Flat, and in the opposite direction of the previous trend. Because after 'flat' initial trend may resume, the model turns performing in fact only a function of road signs that say: "Attention. The trend is in the process of change". Since the existence of a pattern does not guarantee the beginning of a new, oppositely directed trends, therefore, open a new position for a turn signal should only occur if the signal is consistent with the direction of a global trend. And it is possible and necessary to close positions according to the reversal patterns.

 

 

 

Hammer and hanging man – reversal patterns

 

145_50.png

 

Figure 1. Reversal patterns: hammer and hanging man

 

 

"Hammer" (in Japanese "takuri" this word means something like "an attempt to determine the bottom by foot") is a candle with a small body and a long lower shadow that occurs after a downtrend. If a "hammer" appears it is a strong signal that bears are loosing control over the market (Figure 2).

 

"Hanging man" — is a candle with a small body and a long lower shadow that occurs after an uptrend. A "hanging man" signals the end of the uptrend. (Figure 3).

  • Three main features of a "hammer" and a "hanging man" (figure 1)
  • The body is in the upper part of the price range. The color of the body is of no importance.
  • The lower shadow is at least twice as long as the body.
  • The candlestick doesn’t have the upper shadow or it is very short.

145_51.png

 

Figure 2. A hammer on the chart of USDJPY

 

 

Factors that strengthen patterns "hammer" and "hanging man":

  • The longer the lower shadow is, the shorter the upper shadow is and the smaller the body is the higher the potential of a "hammer" or a "hanging man" is.
  • Though bodies of these candles can be both white and black, but the bullish nature of a "hammer" with a white body and the bearish nature of a "hanging man" with a black body are more pronounced. The white body of a "hammer" means that in spite оf the fact that at the beginning of the bar prices were declining by the end of the period bulls managed to increase the closing price up to the highest price of the bar. It indicates that the bulls are strengthening. The black body of a hanging man means that price failed to return to the opening level which is a sign that the bears are strengthening.

Confirming signals for a "hanging man":

  • The following bar opens lower than the body of the "hanging man".The more downward the price gap between the body of the "hanging man" and the opening price of the following bar is the higher probability that the "hanging man" will form a high is.
  • The following bar is a black candlestick with the closing price lower than the closing price on the day when the "hanging man" appeared.

Confirming signals for a "hammer" are similar (with accuracy to the reversal).

One serious consideration that must be used to identify a "hammer" or a "hanging man" is the trend of the market preceding the pattern (downward or upward correspondingly). Also it should be taken into consideration that a "hanging man" forms near the high of the preceding candle and a "hammer" forms near the low of the preceding candle.

 

 

145_52.png

 

Figure 3. A hanging man on the hourly chart of USDCAD

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candlestick pattern แบบ ไฟล์ pdf จ้า

 

:Announce

 

save ไว้อ่านได้ดีใน ipad

 

 

ดีเหมือนกัน...,มีแท่งเทียนให้ดูประกอบ

 

 

http://www.forexmt4....520PATTERNS.pdf

 

 

 

 

http://www.yesfx.com...ns-lessons.html

 

 

http://rnd.psychonau...eve%20Nison.pdf

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Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns

 

 

 

Three criteria of bullish and bearish engulfing pattern (Figure 1):

 

 

  • There must be a pronounced upward or downward trend (even a short-term one) on the market.

  • The body of the second candlestick engulfs the body of the previous candlestick (shadows may not be engulfed).

  • The second body must be of the opposite color and be white in case of a bullish signal and black in case of a bearish signal.

 

 

 

146_56.png

 

Figure 1. Bullish and bearish engulfing pattern

 

 

There is an exception for the third criterion: when the body of the first candlestick is so small that this candlestick is comparable to a doji (or is a doji). I.e. after a durable downward trend a tiny white body is eclipsed by a very large white body. And in case of an upward trend a tiny black body is engulfed by a very large black body of the second following candlestick.

 

 

146_57.png

 

Figure 2. Example of the pattern

 

 

Factors that strengthen the signal of bullish and bearish engulfing pattern:

 

The first candlestick has a very small body while the second candlestick has a very large body. The previous trend is weakening and the new trend is gaining momentum.

 

If the pattern appears after a durable or impetuous trend. If a trend lasts for a long time all potential buyers (sellers) have already entered into positions and no new participants are expected. I.e. the trend will complete. Quick price movement "stretches" the market and make traders lock-in profits, closing positions.

 

A bigger trading volume corresponds to the second candlestick. This is a sign of the trend’s blow off.

The second candlestick engulfs several bodies.

 

 

146_58.png

 

Figure 3. Example of the pattern

 

 

 

http://alpari-forex..../#candlesticks3

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Dark-cloud cover

 

147_59.png

 

Figure 1. Dark cloud cover

 

 

Criteria of the "dark-cloud cover" pattern (Figure 1):

  • The pattern consists of two candles that occur after an uptrend (or near the upper border of the trading range).
  • The first candle is white with a strong body. On the next bar the opening price exceeds the high of the preceding bar but the bar closes near the low and overshadows considerable part of the white body of the preceding candle. The lower the closing price of the black candle is the higher probability the top will form. It is considered that the closing price of the black candle must overshadow more than 50% of the body of the white candle.

Let’s try to explain what is happening in the framework of the "dark-cloud cover" pattern. At first the market rises (the white candle). The following candle opens higher than the maximum of the white candle — the bulls are exultant. They seem to have full control over the situation but the price increase stops. The bears are starting to gain control over the situation and the candle closes near its lows, overshadowing most part of the white candle. The bulls are starting to panic as their positions went into the red. The bears receive a target for a stop-loss (the highest price of the second (black) candle of the pattern).

 

 

147_60.png

 

 

Figure 2. Example of the pattern

 

Factors strengthening the "dark-cloud cover" pattern:

 

  • The more the black candle covers the body of the white candle the stronger the pattern is.
  • If during a long-lasting uptrend a white candle with a long body and without shadows appears and on the next day a black candle with a long body and without shadows appears it is said that "a black day with a truncated top and bottom" has come.
  • If the second candle of the pattern opens higher than an important resistance level but then the price falls below this level it means the bulls can’t control the market and there is a high probability a top will form.
  • If the second bar is accompanied by a larger trading volume than the first one it indicates the uptrend has spent its force.

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Piercing pattern – a bottom reversal signal

 

 

The dark cloud cover and piercing candles are like bookends (refer to Figure 1).

Criteria of the "piercing pattern":

  • The Piercing Pattern is composed of a two-candle formation in a downtrending market.
  • The body of the first candle is black; the body of the second candle is white and long.
  • The second day opens considerably lower than the trading of the prior day and the white candle closes more than halfway up the black candle.

148_61.png

 

Figure 1. Example of the pattern

 

Signal Enhancements:

  • The higher the white candle closes into the black candle, the stronger the reversal.
  • If the second candle of the pattern opens below an important support level but then the price closes above this level it means the bears can’t control the market and there is a high probability that a bottom will form.
  • If the second bar is accompanied by a larger trade volume than the first bar it indicates the downtrend has spent its force.

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Morning star – a bottom reversal signal

 

149_62.png

 

Figure 1. Reversal patterns

 

A star is a candle with a small body that forms a price gap with the preceding candle that has a big body (Figure 1). A gap between bodies is essential (shadows can intercross). The color of the star is of no importance. If a star is a doji it is called a doji star.

Any star especially a doji star indicates the trend is about to reverse. A small body means that the fight between bulls and bears has come to a deadlock.

 

Stars feature in four reversal patterns: evening star, morning star, doji star, falling star. In all the patterns the body of the star can be of any color.

 

"Morning star" — a bottom reversal pattern. It consists of three candlesticks - a long-bodied black candle extending the current downtrend, a short middle candle that gapped down on the open, and a long-bodied white candle that gapped up on the open and closed above the midpoint of the body of the first day. (Figure 2).

 

 

149_63.png

 

Figure 2. Example of a reversal pattern

 

On the black candle the price plunges — the bears have the control over the market. Then a small-bodied candle appears — the bears are loosing conviction. When a strong white body appears it means the bulls seize control. The optimal Morning Star signal would have a gap before and after the star day. Though the second gap occurs rarely it doesn’t diminish the significance of the pattern. The main criterion of significance is the magnitude, that the third day comes up into the black candle of the first day.

Sometimes it happens that the pattern has not one but several stars.

 

Signal Enhancements of the "morning star" pattern:

  • A gap after the star day.
  • The magnitude, that the third day comes up into the black candle of the first day, indicates the strength of the reversal.
  • Small trading volume on the first candle and big volume on the third candle.

 

 

 

 

Evening star – a top reversal signal

 

 

"Evening star" — is exactly the opposite of the Morning Star signal. "Evening star" is a top reversal signal. It consists of three candlesticks - a long-bodied white candle extending the current uptrend, a short middle candle that gapped up on the open, and a long-bodied black candle that should close at least halfway down the white candle. (Figure 1).

 

149_62.png

 

Figure 1. Reversal patterns

 

On the white candle the price surges — the bulls have the control over the market. Then a small-bodied candle appears — the bulls are loosing conviction. When a strong black body appears it means the bears seize control. The optimal Evening Star signal would have a gap before and after the star day. Though the second gap occurs rarely it doesn’t diminish the significance of the pattern. The main criterion of significance is the magnitude, that the third day comes down into the white candle of the first day.

Sometimes it the pattern may consist of more than one star.

 

 

150_65.png

 

Figure 2. Example of a reversal pattern

 

Signal Enhancements of the "Evening star" pattern:

  • A gap after the star day.
  • The magnitude, that the third day comes down into the white candle of the first day, indicates the strength of the reversal.
  • Small trading volume on the first candle and big volume on the third candle.

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Evening doji star and morning doji star – strong reversal signals

 

 

 

 

If the star is a doji (a candle formed when the open and the close occur at the same level or very close to the same level, i.e. it has no body), the "morning doji star" and "evening doji star" form, that are more convincing reversal signals (Figure 1).

 

 

151_66.png

 

 

Figure 1. Reversal patterns

The "Abandoned baby" pattern (refer to Figure 1) forms if:

  • The star is a doji,
  • there is a gap between the doji and the first candle, the shadows mustn’t intercross,
  • there is a gap between the doji and the third candle, the shadows mustn’t intercross as well.

The "abandoned baby" pattern is a more convincing reversal signal than the "evening doji star" and "morning doji star".

Signal Enhancements of the patterns considered earlier:

  • The more the body of the third candle overshadows the body of the first candle the more forceful the pattern.
  • Small volume on the first candle and large volume on the third candle.

 

 

http://alpari-forex.com/en/market/japanese_candle/#candlesticks8

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The Shooting Star and the Inverted Hammer

 

 

The "shooting star" and "inverted hammer" patterns (Figure 1) don’t belong to strong reversal patterns.

 

152_67.png

 

Figure 1.

The criteria of the shooting star and inverted hammer patterns:

  • The real body is small and is at the lower end of the trading range. The color of the body is not important.
  • The upper shadow is long.
  • There should be no lower shadow or a very small lower shadow.
  • The real body of an ideal "shooting star" / "inverted hammer" forms a gap against the real body of the preceding candle but this gap isn’t essential.

152_68.png

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การวิเคราะห์ราคาทางเทคนิค...แท่งเทียน

 

 

 

http://swingingtrade...tickpattern.pdf

 

 

 

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other reversal pattern

 

 

 

post-21-0-68624500-1340078356_thumb.jpg

 

 

post-21-0-92594500-1340078572_thumb.jpg

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Tweezer Tops and Bottoms

 

The Tweezer Top formation is a bearish reversal pattern seen at the top of uptrends and the Tweezer Bottom formation is a bullish reversal pattern seen at the bottom of downtrends.

 

Tweezer Top formation consists of two candlesticks:

Tweezer Bottom formation consists of two candlesticks:

  • Bearish Candle (Day 1)
  • Bullish Candle (Day 2)

TweezersPic.gif

 

Sometimes Tweezer Tops or Bottoms have three candlesticks.

A bearish Tweezer Top occurs during an uptrend when bulls take prices higher, often closing the day off near the highs (a bullish sign). However, on the second day, how traders feel (i.e. their sentiment) reverses completely. The market opens and goes straight down, often eliminating the entire gains of Day 1.

The reverse, a bullish Tweezer Bottom occurs during a downtrend when bears continue to take prices lower, usually closing the day near the lows (a bearish sign). Nevertheless, Day 2 is completely opposite because prices open and go nowhere but upwards. This bullish advance on Day 2 sometimes eliminates all losses from the previous day.

 

Tweezer Bottom Candlestick Chart Example

 

A Tweezer Bottom is shown below in the chart of Exxon-Mobil (XOM) stock:

TweezerBottomXOM.gif

The bears pushed the price of Exxon-Mobil (XOM) downwards on Day 1; however, the market on Day 2 opened where prices closed on Day 1 and went straight up, reversing the losses of Day 2. A buy signal would generally be given on the day after the Tweezer Bottom, assuming the candlestick was bullish green

 

.

Intra-day Tweezer Tops and Bottoms

 

The bullish Tweezer Bottom formation shown on the last page of the daily chart of Exxon-Mobil is shown below with a 15-minute chart spanning the two days the Tweezer Bottom pattern was emerging:

TweezerBottomXOM15min2day.gif

Notice how Exxon-Mobil (XOM) stock went downwards the whole day on Day 1. Then on Day 2, the bearish sentiment of Day 1 was completely reversed and XOM stock went up the whole day. This sudden and drastic change of opinion between Day 1 and Day 2 could be viewed as an overnight transfer of power from bears to bulls.

The 15-minute chart below of the E-mini Russell 2000 Futures contract shows how a three day Tweezer Top usually develops:

 

TweezerTopER215min3day.gif

 

 

On Day 1, the bulls were in charge of the Russell 2000 E-mini. On Day 2, however, the bulls began the day trying to make a new high, but were rejected by the overhead resistance created by the prior day's highs. The market then sank quickly only to recover halfway by the end of the close on Day 2. Day 3 opened with a spectacular gap up, but the bulls were promptly rejected by the bears at the now established resistance line. The Russell 2000 E-mini then fell for the rest of the day. Many classic chartists will recognize this triple Tweezer Top as a Double Top formation (see: Double Top).

The Tweezer Top and Bottom reversal pattern is extremely helpful because it visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears. Of course other technical indicators should be consulted before making a buy or sell signal based on the Tweezer patterns.

 

 

http://www.onlinetra...rTopBottom.html

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จากกระทู้ข้างบน

 

 

fibonacci

 

 

http://inv3.asiaplus.co.th/cms/uploads/pdf_investor/thai/chap10.pdf

 

 

 

ลองมาดู คลิปบ้าง...

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dRJ3kaao_M

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