แวะมาสวัสดีเพื่อนๆ ทุกคนค่ะ คิดถึงคุณมดแดงด้วยนะคะ คุณมดแดงเก่งขึ้นมากๆ เลยค่ะ (แบบว่า แอบอ่านทุกวันเลยค่ะ แต่ไม่ได้โพสต์ เพราะไม่มีเวลา)
ขอบพระคุณอาจารย์มาโนชมากๆ ด้วยค่ะ ได้ความรู้เยอะมาก มีหลายข้อที่อ่านจากหนังสือของอาจารย์สุรชัย ไชยรังสินันท์ แล้วไม่ค่อยเข้าใจ พอมาดูกราฟอาจารย์แล้วก็เข้าใจมากขึ้นค่ะ
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อยากจะรบกวนถามความคิดเห็นอาจารย์ ว่าคิดเห็นยังไงกับ ความคิดของ Quad G: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=41880&page=778 บ้างคะ
There is a bunch of crazy crap going down right now that I have to monitor/manage. I have much to point out in the markets, but it will have to come out piecemeal, no time for one big report.
First, back in Oct 2010, I suggested that Gold was likely to come into resistance around 1386. Many were asking after that stellar run between Aug/Oct "When is the next best time to get in"? I suggested buying the 5-8% dips that should come into play, as common bull market pull-backs. We have since seen 4 pull-backs of 5-8%. Possibly the last one went the distance, down to 1310. Overall, the gold market has been very generous with buying opportunities for the past 3-4 months.
However, when gold begins another thrust higher the dips are going to be much more shallow, in the 1-3% range.
Currently, I think a 5th wave blow off is still ahead of us. I took many measurements, and this next wave 5 looks likely to extend. A proposed wave 1 and 3 are similar in length, wave 3 slightly longer, this allows wave 5 to be up to a 1.618% extension of wave 3.
Wave 3 was about $230
230 x 1.618 = 372
my top for wave 3 is 1387
1387 + 372 = 1759
However, if the market is going to respect the wave B extensions (1424 to 1430) then 1800+ is possible.
A similar wave 5 blow off extension was made between Oct '09 and Dec. '09
A more conservative measure would be wave 1 = 5.
Wave 1 = 222
if wave 4 bottoms here at 1310ish, then wave 5 could target 1532.
1532 may take only 4-5 weeks to reach (late Feb/ Early March).
1759-1800 could take up to 5-6 months (June/July time frame).
I still expect Silver to reach for $50+, the GSR heading south. As gold becomes increasingly pricey, Silver will increasingly become 'poor man's gold'
I think silver is leaving most of it's industrial support behind, as safe haven buying takes the driver's seat.
Gotta go......I'll be back with more.
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