บทวิเคราะห์ของกูรูนอก

[NeoSeemadong 52]

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Sep 11 10 05:14 ET

Comex Gold (GC)

 

Gold climbed further to as high as 1264.7 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1266.5 record high. Subsequent fall and break of the near term channel support is taken as the first sign of reversal. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper fall. Decisive break of 1210.2/1211.7 cluster support (50% retracement of 1155.6 to 1264.7 at 1210.2) will confirm that whole rebound from 1155.6 is finished and will bring deeper fall towards this support level. On the upside, note again that we will not turn bullish in gold before decisive break of 1266.5 record high.

 

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rise from 1155.6 and its persistence dampens our bearish view. In any case, we'll refrain from turning bullish and thus stay neutral before a break of 1266.5 resistance. Below 1211.7 support will confirm that rebound from 1155.6 is finished and reaffirm the case that such rally is merely the second leg consolidation from 1266.5. In such case, we should at least see a retest of 1155.6 support. However, decisive break of 1266.5 will indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for 1300 psychological level.

 

In the long term picture, the view that 1266.5 is a major top looks shaky now. But in any case, considering bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, a major top should be near, even if it's not formed. We're expecting sizeable correction after topping, with possibility of a breach of 1000 psychological level. Though, there is no indication of long term up trend reversal yet. We'd maintain the long term bullish view and expect whole up trend from 1999 low of 253 to continue to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level after completing the anticipated correction.

 

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

 

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

 

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

 

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart

[NeoSeemadong 52]

ขอบคุณมากคะ นอนดึกเหมือนกันเลยคะ +1 เพิ่มพลังจะได้อยู่สู้กับน้องทองให้ดิ่งลงไป1222เยวๆ

 

ขอบคุณสำหรับ ๑ คะแนน

ไม่ตี ๑ ไม่นอนครับ แล้วมาคุยกันตอนดึกนะครับ

[anjukosang 4]

เกิดdivergenceขึ้นอย่างนี้เป็นขาลงแน่ชัดแล้วใช่รึเปล่าคะ +1 ให้กราฟทั้ง 4 กราฟคะ

[NeoSeemadong 52]

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ecPulse.com |

Wed Sep 15 10 02:21 ET

 

Gold

The suggested classical overview over four hour interval, which we discussed in the weekly report, has failed after the previous all-time high of 1265.00 was breached obviously. Now, the daily chart offers the possibility of drawing a harmonic AB=CD pattern, where it seems that the CD leg is in progress for the time being. The technical target of the potential reversal zones reside at 1294.00 and that matches the Fibonacci expansion level of AB to BC as we highlighted in the "Bu" day article yesterday. Therefore, possible bullishness could be seen over intraday basis, supported by Stochastic and AROON indicators.

 

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1242.00 and key resistance now at 1291.00.

 

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1365.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1120.00 remain intact.

 

Support: 1265.00, 1258.00, 1255.00, 1249.00, 1245.00

Resistance: 1274.00, 1277.00, 1285.00, 1291.00, 1294.00

 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1265.00 targeting 1291.00 and stop loss below 1245.00 might be appropriate.

[mayany 7]

!thk !thk !thk

[anjukosang 4]

ขอบคุณมากคะ +1 เพิ่มพลังเหมือนเดิมคะ น้องทองจะขึ้นไปสูงนานมั๊ยคะเนี๊ย ติดS อยู่ กำลังรอปล่อยอยู่เลยคะ :unsure:

[anjukosang 4]

ขอบคุณมากคะ +1 เพิ่มพลังเหมือนเดิมคะ น้องทองจะขึ้นไปสูงนานมั๊ยคะเนี๊ย ติดS อยู่ กำลังรอปล่อยอยู่เลยคะ :unsure:

[NeoSeemadong 52]

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ecPulse.com |

Fri Sep 24 10 02:36 ET

 

Gold

Gold is trapped within a very tight range as it is still affected by facing the major extended resistance of 1294.00, which represents 127.2% projection Fibonacci for the BC leg of our suggested harmonic AB=CD pattern. Thus, we are still waiting for a breakout above this level to send the metal upwards towards 161.8%. Anyway, AROON indicator is still positive, reflecting the solidity of the uptrend. Therefore, we might witness bullish actions over intraday basis.

 

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1265.00 and key resistance now at 1332.00.

 

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 1365.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1120.00 remain intact.

 

Support: 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1272.00, 1265.00

Resistance: 1294.00, 1300.00, 1310.00, 1314.00, 1320.00

 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold with a breakout above 1294.00 targeting 1320.00 and stop loss below 1275.00 might be appropriate.

[Neo Seemadong 3]

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ecPulse.com |

Thu Oct 07 10 02:30 ET

 

Gold

Gold is facing very sensitive extended resistance areas, where the bigger harmonic picture offers a potential crab pattern as seen on the provided chart. Fibonacci projection levels of 423.6 % for the BC leg reside at 1356.00, while 161.8% of XA resides at 1339.00. Thus, we believe that potential downside actions could start anytime and we believe that this bearish wave could be aggressive, as the crab pattern always causes a strong reversal. A breakout below 1339.00 will confirm this anticipated reversal as will also assist Stochastic to move lower.

 

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1325.00 and key resistance now at 1380.00.

 

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1400.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1120.00 remain intact.

 

Support: 1348.00, 1345.00, 1340.00, 1332.00, 1328.00

Resistance: 1355.00, 1360.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1380.00

 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold with a breakout below 1339.00 targeting 1307.00 and stop loss above 1365.00 might be appropriate.

[Neo Seemadong 3]

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ecPulse.com |

Fri Oct 08 10 03:29 ET

 

 

Gold

 

Violent declines sent the metal downwards as the metal influenced negatively by facing the extended resistance areas around 1365.00. Not only that but gold closed below 161.8% Fibonacci projection of XA leg for our captured bearish harmonic crab pattern at 1339.00. Therefore, more bearish actions could be witnessed over intraday basis, supported by the negative crossover on Stochastic and yesterday's bearish candlestick formation. Note that the crab pattern always causes sharp reversal.

 

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1300.00 and key resistance now at 1365.00.

 

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1400.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1120.00 remain intact.

 

Support: 1330.00, 1325.00, 1320.00, 1314.00, 1307.00

Resistance: 1339.00, 1345.00, 1350.00, 1355.00, 1365.00

 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold around 1339.00 targeting 1307.00 and stop loss above 1365.00 might be appropriate

[mayany 7]

ขอบคุณมากคะ รอลงมานานแระ +1คะ

[NeoSeemadong 52]

ขอบคุณมากคะ รอลงมานานแระ +1คะ

 

กลับขึ้นไปแระ คิก คิก

[นายธนันชัย 3]

!01 !01 !01

[NeoSeemadong 52]

Technical Analysis for Precious Metals

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by ecPulse.com |

Fri Oct 15 10 02:51 ET

 

Gold

When the BC leg corrects 50 of A in an AB=CD pattern, the second PRZ -possible reversal zone- forming D point is 200% of BC. Gold closed yesterday above this level at 1372.00 and therefore the metal might extend towards 261.8%. We also expect further intraday bullishness today, due to the positive closing above the aforesaid correction level and Stochastic supports our expectations despite trading in overbought areas.

 

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1348.00 and key resistance now at 1404.00.

 

The short term trend is to the upside targeting 1400.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1120.00 remain intact.

 

Support: 1375.00, 1372.00, 1365.00, 1360.00, 1355.00

Resistance: 1385.00, 1389.00, 1395.00, 1400.00, 1404.00

 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying gold around 1375.00 targeting 1400.00 and stop loss with hourly closing below 1360.00 might be appropriate

[NeoSeemadong 52]

Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis

Can't Keep a Good Bull Market Down

Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by optionsXpress | Fri Oct 15 10 10:37 ET

 

Fundamentals

Despite widespread media attention and a near record long position by speculators, the gold market keeps making new all-time highs. Among the biggest factors being cited for Gold's continued rise is the lack of investor confidence in currencies. This is especially true given the rhetoric from various governments trying to "jawbone" down the value of their currencies to help exports. The weakness in the US Dollar is especially supportive for Gold, as the sagging value of the "greenback" makes Gold purchases by non-Dollar holders less expensive. However, Gold has also been trading strongly vs. other major currencies, which adds to the bullish sentiment for the yellow metal. Many technical traders believe Gold has become "overbought", though, and in need of a correction -- especially in light of the fact that Gold has rallied over $200 per ounce since August, with only minimal setbacks along the way. The most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a combined speculative long position of 323,496 contracts as of October 5th. Since that time, Gold has rallied over $40 per ounce, and we may see a new record long position when the next COT report is issued this afternoon. Traders holding long Gold positions will likely want to see prices break through the important $1,400 level soon, or short-term momentum traders may soon begin to liquidate their long positions which could spark a much needed correction and shake-out weak longs and put the market back into a healthier technical state.

 

Technical Notes

Looking at the daily chart for December Gold, we notice how few 5% or more up or down moves we have seen during this historic rally. This orderly ascension has been one of the key reasons behind the accumulation of a near-record long position by speculators, as even the corrections have not been severe enough on a percentage basis to shake-out bullish traders -- especially those holding large paper gains. As we have mentioned in the past, the precious metals markets have a history of making parabolic moves before signaling the end of historic bull markets. This has not yet occurred in the recent Gold bull move, and until we see daily moves of over 5% or more it is too early to call a potential market top. Resistance in December Gold is seen at 1400.00, with support found near the 20-day moving average, currently near the 1320.00 area.

 

Trading Ideas

Although Gold prices have risen sharply the past few months, we have not seen the heightened volatility that usually accompanies a market that is trading at or near historic highs. This sets up the potential scenario of Gold price volatility increasing sharply in the near future. Some traders expecting a big move in Gold prices or a large increase in volatility may wish to explore the purchase of a strangle in Gold futures options. An example of such a trade would be buying the December Gold 1480 calls and buying the December Gold 1300 puts. With the December futures trading at 1381.10 as of this writing, this strangle could be purchased for about 18.50 points, or $1850 per spread, not including commissions. The premium paid would be the maximum potential risk on the trade. The trade will be profitable at expiration in November if December Gold is trading above 1498.50 or below 1281.50.

 

 

 

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