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For These Four Nations, 2012 Is Worse Than the Great Recession

 

 

The Great Recession of 2008/09 delivered the worst blow to the global economy since the 1930s. But in a few nations, 2012 is turning out to be worse than 2009 in terms of economic growth. Europe's debt crisis, the general slowing of the world economy, and domestic political troubles have played a role in undercutting 2012 growth for one or more of these four nations. Can you guess who they are?

 

 

Sami Sarkis | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images

 

 

 

It's no surprise that 2012 has turned out worse for Greece. It didn't escape the 2009 downturn, the economy contracted by half a percentage point. But unlike most of the rest of the world, which rebounded the following year, Greece has continued to shrink — 5.4 percent last year and an estimated 5.2 percent this year, according to projections from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In many ways, Greece is the poster child for the debt crisis that has gripped the European Union and a solemn warning to other nations stuck with rising government debt. An unsustainable debt load has caused interest rates on Greece's sovereign debt to soar and forced it to seek a bailout and a debt restructuring. In return for the help, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank have forced successive Greek governments to make huge and unpopular spending cuts, the latest one announced Aug. 1, 2012, for 11.5 billion euros ($14.1 billion). Even with the spending cuts and debt restructuring, Greece's public coffers are nearly exhausted, its industries are uncompetitive, and its economy continues on a downward spiral.

“When the market takes a dim view of your prospects, that sends you down that spiral,” says Tu Packard, senior economist with Moody's Analytics. “It’s punishing, really.”

The situation is so untenable that many analysts believe Greece will have to abandon the euro in the next year or two, create a new currency, and then immediately depreciate it to allow its workers to become competitive. But in the process, living standards of the Greek people would plunge.

While not foundering as badly as Greece, Portugal is also a bailout country with high debts and a shrinking economy. In the depths of the Great Recession, it’s economy shrank 2 percent. This year it’s on track to decline 3 percent, according to the OECD.

 

 

Still, Portugal is doing what other European nations wish Greece would do. It is taking the difficult steps to return to growth. It has cut its 2010 government deficit by half in 2011, cut government workers, and this year reduced public-sector pay by 14 percent, earning praise from the IMF for largely meeting its commitments to reform after receiving a bailout last year.

Its success is by no means assured. Unemployment has soared to a record 15.2 percent and tax revenues have fallen, which will make it difficult for Portugal to make this year’s budget target. Its much larger trading neighbor, Spain, is struggling with its own sovereign debt problems that have clouded its economic future. But Portugal is likely to start growing again far sooner than Greece.

India is at risk of becoming the first of the BRIC nations — the collection of fast-growing emerging markets that also includes Brazil, Russia, and China — to have its credit rating reduced to junk status.

Just a year ago, India’s government expected double-digit growth in fiscal 2012, just as it experienced even during the worst of the Great Recession. Now, it’s forecasting only 6.8 percent growth — and even that may be too optimistic. High inflation, high interest rates, and a poor monsoon season, coupled with a political crisis that has brought the government to a standstill, have caused business, consumer, and investor confidence to plunge.

There's the possibility that India is touching bottom (and it is still growing at a pace that would be the envy of any developed nation). Embattled Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has appointed a Harvard MBA as his new finance minister, cut government subsidies, and opened up supermarkets and the airline industry to foreign investment.

"India does have a modest stimulus and depreciation," says Adrian Mowat, J.P. Morgan’s chief emerging market and Asian equity strategist. "That's probably sufficient for stabilization." He foresees better times ahead, at least for the stock market. On Sept. 14, the Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensitive Index hit a 14-month high.

This is the biggest surprise of all. The Great Recession cut China’s real GDPgrowth by a third — down to 9.2 percent in 2009, according to the IMF — before it rebounded. But China this year is growing at an even slower pace: 7.5 to 8.0 percent, according to various estimates.

Much of this decline is deliberate: Beijing tightened lending to try to tame inflation, which was pushing up food and housing prices; now, it’s trying to loosen some of its control to make sure growth doesn’t fall too far. In many ways, China is paying the price for having engineered its recovery from therecession with a huge stimulus. Housing prices have soared. All the loans have created the potential for bad debt.

“You have this credit bubble still hanging over the economy, so that limits the government’s ability to stimulate the economy,” says Todd Lee, senior director of global economics at IHS/Global Insight, an economic research firm in Lexington, Mass.

A growing number of analysts think China’s growth will decline even more as exports fall, especially those destined for recession-plagued Europe. “Things have become more precarious,” Mr. Lee says, but he’s holding to his forecast of 7.8 percent growth this year with a very mild recovery in 2013.

 

 

Credit by : http://www.cnbc.com/id/49056918

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Bank of Japan Eases Monetary Policy as Slowdown Bites (ประกาศลดดอกเบี้ย)

 

 

The Bank of Japan eased monetary policy on Wednesday by boosting asset purchases, as slowing global demand and heightening tensions with China hurt chances of a near-term recovery in the export-reliant economy.

The central bank expanded its asset buying and loan program, currently its key monetary easing tool, by 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) to 80 trillion yen, with the increase to be for purchases of government bonds and treasury discount bills.

The deadline for meeting the overall target was extended by six months to December 2013.

As widely expected, the central bank maintained its key policy rate in a range of zero to 0.1 percent.

BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold an embargoed news conference later on Wednesday with his comments expected to come out some time after 4:15 p.m. (0715 GMT).

The BOJ set a 1 percent inflation target and eased policy in February, and followed up with another increase in asset purchases in April. It had stood pat since then, judging that Japan's economy would soon resume a recovery with support from spending for rebuilding from last year's earthquake.

But central bank officials have become less convinced of a near-term recovery on growing signs of weakness in exports and output. The widening fallout from anti-Japan protests in China, which is expected to hit Japanese exports in coming months, added to mounting risks to the fragile economy, analysts say.

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Fed's Bullard Says QE3 Was Launched Too Soon (ดีกว่าไม่มา)

 

 

The Federal Reserve should have waited for clearer signs of a flagging economy before launching its new bond-buying program, the head of the St. Louis regional Fed bank said on Tuesday, adding that he would have voted against it.

 

Tetra Images | Getty Images

United States Federal Reserve

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, also told Reuters that he is sufficiently concerned about the risk of future inflation that he backs a controversial proposal by congressional Republicans for the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/43752521/" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(45, 100, 138); ">Fed to return to having only a single mandate: preventing inflation.

The Fed currently has a dual focus on full employment and stable prices.

In discussing his views on more monetary stimulus, Bullard said, "We should take a little bit more (of a) wait-and-see posture." His comments, in an interview with Reuters Insider, highlight potential dissent on the Fed's policy committee next year when he will be a voting member.

The U.S. central bank launched a potentially massive policy-easing effort last week to try to help the struggling U.S. economy.

Under the program, dubbed QE3 by Wall Street, the Fed will purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed debt until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially.

Bullard said the state of the U.S. economy was not dire enough for such a program.

Financial stress is pretty low and measures of inflation are right about on target, he said.

Equity markets also seemed to indicate a lot of faith in the U.S. economy, he said, saying he would have waited to see what actions were taken in Europe in the fall to fight the region's debt crisis.

"I would have voted against it based on the timing. I didn't feel like we had a good enough case to make a major move at this juncture," said Bullard, who has been viewed as a centrist on the spectrum of Fed officials, though in recent months he has sounded opinions that have sounded more hawkish as he has expressed doubts about the need for further stimulus.

Nevertheless, Bullard made clear he was concerned about the potential fallout on the United States from a global economic slowdown.

"I just would have wanted to wait to see a little bit more about how that's going to develop," he said.

But he was not a fan of the European Central Bank's announcement that it would make unlimited purchases in euro zone government bond markets to ensure the common currency survives.

"I am concerned about the strategy. I think it has embroiled them (the ECB) in a political situation in Europe. I think this conditionality in exchange for bond purchases is a dangerous precedent for central banks around the world."

The U.S. central bank, which cut overnight interest rates to near zero in 2008, has already bought $2.3 trillion in government and mortgage-liked debt in a bid to drive other borrowing costs lower and spur a stronger recovery.

Last week's Fed action sparked an uproar among Republicans, who have complained for months the Fed was risking inflation through the unprecedented aggression of its actions.

Bullard said he viewed inflation as under control, but said QE3 added to inflation risks.

"There is a global slowdown and normally you would think of containing U.S. inflation pressure.

I do think we're at risk in the medium term and the longer term for inflation in the U.S., and we're taking more risk on for pursuing this policy," he said in a longer Reuters text interview after his remarks on Insider.

He also voiced concern that QE3 could spill over into higher commodity prices, as happened with the previous rounds of Fed bond-buying, although he said the soft tone of the world economy would help curb price rises.

Even so, Bullard said some of the contours of the plan, which has no set end date, were in keeping with how he thinks monetary policy should be conducted with interest rates already near zero.

Leaving end dates off a bond buying program can make the policy "more effective," he said.

"We should go meeting by meeting with any balance sheet policy," Bullard said.

QE3 comes on top of an existing stimulus program in which the central bank buys about $45 billion a month in long-term Treasuries while selling the same amount of short-term Treasuries.

That program, dubbed Operation Twist and designed to bring down long-term borrowing costs, runs to the end of 2012.

Bullard was not alone on Tuesday in voicing doubts over whether QE3 was needed.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a noted inflation hawk, also said he would have voted against the policy if he were a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year.

Two other policymakers - William Dudley of the New York Fed and Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed - voiced strong support for the central bank's decision.

The Fed's statement in which it unveiled QE3 last Thursday sparked some controversy by saying monetary policy would likely be kept very easy until long after the economic recovery strengthens.

 

 

 

 

 

RELATED LINKS

 

 

• Marc Faber: If I Were Bernanke, I Would Resign
  
• QE3: Good For the Economy?
  
• Trump: QE3 ‘Artificial,’ but Rich Will Love It
  

This was seen as a signal policymakers would tolerate higher inflation, which some economists say could help the economy by goading spending and helping to slowly reduce the country's debt load.

Bullard said he was not in that camp.

"I don't think there's a lot of benefit from inflation," he said.

In fact, he was worried enough about the prospect of inflation down the road that he backed a proposal from congressional Republican critics to curb the Fed's dual mandate of seeking low unemployment in the context of price stability for a solitary focus on preventing inflation.

"Anything that the Fed does is going to only have temporary effects," he said.

"We have to get back to that notion. Too much is creeping in about the ideas of permanent trade-offs, which I regard as a misunderstanding of what monetary policy could do. So I would back going to a single mandate."

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ถูกแก้ไข ตุลาคม 19, 2012 โดย thekopkkn

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มองภายในสัปดาห์นี้ คงไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้น Downside-way 1779-1750 (คิดไว้ส่วนตัว มั่ว ๆ ประมาณนั้น)

 

ถูกแก้ไข ตุลาคม 19, 2012 โดย thekopkkn

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